Breeders Cup Saturday

Photo ©Tom Hyland

There's nothing like the Breeders Cup to get a horseplayer excited. There's also nothing like a bad day of handicapping at the Breeders Cup to get that same horseplayer frustrated (to put it mildly).

So today, I bet less, knowing I'll lose less - but hopefully, we'll translate that into a profitable day- I'd be happy to make $100 today. My problem is I always dream big at the Breeders Cup; nothing wrong with that, except that I'm out of my comfort zone. I start looking for a big payout instead of handicapping. I'm guessing that I'll do better on Sunday at Santa Anita (closing day) with a regular card.

So only a few picks today:

Juvenile Fillies: Difficult to choose between Feathered, Angela Renee, Conquest Eclipse and By The Moon. One of these four will win - I'll go with Conquest Eclipse and Feathered on top. If the former wins, it will be the first BC victory for Mark Casse, a trainer who's won about everything else. If the latter wins, it will be the first win for Todd Pletcher in this race.

Juvenile: A single for me with this race - Carpe Diem, who has looked brilliant in his two races to date. 

Filly and Mare Turf: Wide open and will go against defending champ Dank. Either DayattheSpa or Secret Gesture.

Filly and Mare Sprint: Stonetastic or Artemis Agortera

Turf Sprint: Incredibly difficult race. Box six horses: Undrafted, Caspar Netscher, Dimension, Home Run Kitten, Sweetswap, No Nay Never.

Sprint: Another incredibly difficult race. Box seven horses: Palace, Salutos Amigos, Mico Margarita, Rich Tapestry, Fast Anna, Private Zone, Work all Week.

Classic: Either Shared Belief or Tonalist on top with V.E. Day second or third.

Good luck to all!

Breeders' Cup - Friday

Mike Smith looks to build on his record 20 Breeders' Cup wins (Photo ©Tom Hyland)

Just a few thoughts on the 2014 Breeders' Cup races, as there is way too much written already.

A Pick 3, starting with the 5th race, the $100,000 Damascus Stakes. Bob Baffert has three horses entered, but as usual when a trainer has more than one horse entered, go with the highest price. So I'm taking a pass on Midnight Hawk (#2) and Chitu (#3) in favor of his other entry Declassify (#7).

I also like the #11 Bahamian Squall, trained by David Fawkes and ridden by Rafael Bejerano. He comes off of one of his best races ever and can still improve. He ran in last year's BC Sprint at Santa Anita and was not embarrassed, finishing 6th, beaten only 2 and 3/4 lengths for the top spot.

For the 6th race, I think that the favorite Hootenanny (#5) can be beat, as he's stretching out. He has looked great so far and I read that his trainer Wesley Ward says the horse is "fully cranked" for this race, so he could be very dangerous. But he's going up against some very tough horses in this race. It's very wide open - as are most BC races, but particularly this year - so I'm going with Commemorative (#4), Conquest Typhoon (#6), War Envoy (#7) - Aidan O'Brien - first lasix - how can you not like this horse? - Offering Plan (#8) - Chad Brown at 20-1 morning line - and finally Imperia (#11), trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who's looked excellent in both of his turf starts.


For the 7th, the BC Mile, I can't throw out the chalk Goldencents, who will probably be the lowest-priced favorite today and possible tomorrow. But I'm going to also include several other horses in this race, namely Carve (#2), Vicar's in Trouble (#3), Pants on Fire (#4), Handsome Mike (#5) - a 30-1 shot, Fed Biz (#8), Tapiture (#9) and Big Bane Theory (#10).

So the Pick 3 for races 5, 6, 7 is:
7,11 / 4,6,7,8,11 / 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 - total for a 50 cent bet = $40


Last Pick 3 of the day - races 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies), 9 (BC Distaff) and 10 (allowance race, 7 furlongs)

8th race - 4, 5, 6, 11

9th race - 1,4,7,9 - note, I am throwing out the two favorites, Close Hatches (#10) and Untapable (#11). Call me crazy, but I think these two horse will get beat, as this is a more competitive Distaff than in recent years.

10th race - 1,2,3,7,8,11 (11 is my top choice, but the race is too wide open).


So the Pick 3 for races 8, 9, 10 is:

4,5,6,11 / 1,4, 7, 9 / 1, 2,3, 7, 8, 11 - total for a 50 cent bet = $48



Good luck and we'll see you tomorrow!

"Keys" from Del Mar

Another exciting Del Mar season is in the books and besides excellent racing as always, this year, it seemed to me, was as good a meet as they've enjoyed in years. The fields were larger and there was great balance; evidence of that is the fact that Jerry Hollendorfer and Peter Miller tied for the most victories by a trainer. Bob Baffert, by the way, wasn't even in the top five in the category, although he certainly had a fine meet, ending with a bang by winning his 12th Del Mar Futurity on closing day, September 3rd.

As a handicapper, I also loved the fact that there were a good number of double digit prices that won, especially with the 2-year old races. I mention this, as this certainly was not the case - once again - at Saratoga. I love that track not only for the history, but also the quality of racing, but when Todd Pletcher continues to seemingly win every other 2-year old MSW race at the Spa, well, it gets a little boring. Yes, he has great horses and top clients, but you'd like to see someone else win a few of these races from time to time.

So spreading the wealth at Del Mar (or any track) when it comes to the leading trainers is a good thing, so great for Hollendorfer and Miller as well as Bob Hess, John Sadler and Doug O'Neill, all of whom enjoyed more victories at the meet than Baffert. Nothing against Baffert, but it's nice to see things even out a bit. Besides, no one is going to feel sorry for BB, at least not for some time.

Baffert had the last laugh anyway when he won the Del Mar Futurity with American Pharaoah, a colt he had labeled as one of his best 2-year olds. He was favored to win his first race, but ran into a buzzsaw named Om, trained by Dan Hendricks in the 4th race on Saturday, August 9. Om, from the three hole, took the lead immediately and was able to shake loose from American Pharaoh, who stalked him three wide down the backstretch. The race was over by the eighth pole and American Pharaoh faded to fifth, losing by 9 and 1/4 lengths.

For that race, American Pharaoh was equipped with blinkers, but for the Futurity, Baffert had removed them. He had the rail, which didn't hurt his chances, but for this race, he was sharp as could be, taking the lead after a few strides and then taking command of the race after two furlongs. His final time for the seven furlongs was 1:21 and 2/5 seconds and his winning margin was 4 and 3/4 lengths.

By the way, the second and third place finishers were Calculator, trained by Peter Miller and Iron Fist, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. I mention this as both of those horses came out of the same race that American Pharaoh ran in on August 9 against Om. Talk about a key race! (If you'll allow me a moment to gloat, I did catch the $227.60 exacta that race- I wrote about it here.)


If that isn't enough evidence to get you to realize that the Om race on August 9 was a key race, consider what happened on closing day in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes, that went off as race 6, just an hour or so before the Del Mar Futurity. The winner of this race was Daddy DT, trained by John Sadler and ridden by Corey Nakatani. Daddy DT had run in one previous race, that on the polytrack, finishing sixth by ten lengths. Guess what race that was? You got it, it was race 4 on August 9, the race won so convincingly by Om. Yes, the switch to turf was the right call for Daddy DT, but clearly, his effort in the August 9 race, was much better than looked on paper, due to an overwhelming foe.


So the evidence is overwhelming - the 4th race on August 9, a 6and 1/2 furlong sprint for 2-year olds was as "key" a key race, as you'll ever find!


By way, I can't wait to see Om race again. Nor can I wait to see what is in store for the first-ever fall meet at Del Mar; named the Bing Crosby Season, the meet runs from November 7-30.

A Price at Del Mar

I caught a big price last Saturday at Del Mar when Om wired the field of 2 year-olds at 6 and 1/2 furlongs. Om, a Dan Hendricks charge, was 15-1 in the morning line and went off at 22-1. The fact that Bob Baffert had a first timer from Zayat named American Pharoah had a lot to do with Om's odds (American Pharoah, coming off some typically fast works for the trainer was the morning line favorite at 5-2 and was bet down to 7-5).

Om had run one race and finished fifth, beaten by 11 and 1/4 lengths; to the casual handicapper, this looked like a horse to take a pass on. However, the race he ran was a 5 furlong sprint run in June at Santa Anita in a very fast time of 57.2. Om showed some speed out of the 6 hole, but couldn't keep up with the winner, as he was 3 wide into the stretch, as noted in the form. Also, while Om did finish 11 and 1/4 lengths behind the winner (BadReadSanchez), that horse won by 10 lengths, so Om really turned in a fine performance the first time out. The fact that he was sent off at 5-2 was another positive sign.

Om, out of the three hole, did grab the lead right away in last Saturday's race with American Pharoah stalking him to his outside. It was those two horses on the lead all the way down the backstretch, but by the time the horses entered the lane, Om had put away American Pharoah and all of his challengers, winning by 7 and 1/4 lengths. Thankfully, I made a $2 exacta with a few horses, so I collected $227.60, as the second favorite Iron Fist, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, got the place spot.


Today could be a similar story for the 6th race at Del Mar, a 5 and 1/2 furlong sprint for 2-year olds. Once again, there's a talented Baffert firster, this one named Abusive Power, co-owned by Mike Pegram. He's had some fast works and is ridden by Baffert's go-to jock Martin Garcia. All systems are go, as they say (he's 4-1 morning line).

The favorite is #8, Kantune, trained by Mark Casse. Kantune ran an excellent first race at Del Mar on July 19, a 5-furlong dash in 58 seconds flat. He just missed, finishing second by a half-length when bet down to 7-2. No doubt a deserving favorite today at 3-1.

However, inside speed has been very good at Del Mar lately, so look out for the #1, American Sailor, a Cody Autrey trainee. He also had a fine first race at Del Mar on July 19, that was run in a very quick 57.4. American Sailor showed early speed, but according to the notes in the form, was three wide in the lane and weakened; he finished ninth, beaten by eleven lengths. The fact that he was sent off at 5-2 is a positive sign for today, as is the fact that he has the one hole, so his early speed should mean a great deal in this race.

To complicate things even more, there's the #7, Discreet Prince, conditioned by Robertino Diodoro. This horse ran in the same race as American Sailor, but was not favored by the public, going off a tick shy of 40-1. However, this horse beat American Sailor that day, also showing speed, finishing 5th, beaten by 5 and 3/4 lengths;  his morning line is a much more reasonable 5-1.


Add to the mix some beautifully bred firsters such as #2 Pappou (Tapit, out of a Saint Ballado mare, trained by John Sadler and #5 Film Freak (Fusaichi Pegasus, out of a Dynaformer mare), trained by Tommy Proctor and you've got a pretty contentious race. How I love these two-year old races at Del Mar!

Mr. D

Richard L. Duchossois with jockey Kent Desormeaux and trainer Bill Mott at the trophy presentation for the 2009 Beverly D stakes, won by Dyanforce (Photo ©Tom Hyland)

This weekend the 32nd running of the Arlington Million will take place at Arlington Park, in the northwest-Chicago suburb of Arlington Heights. The Million is one of three Grade 1 races that day; the others being the Beverly D for fillies and mares, 3 year old and up, run at one mile and three-sixteenths on the turf and the Secretariat Stakes, for three-year olds on the turf at the same distance. These three races are the cornerstone of the Arlington Festival of Racing, the biggest day each year for racing in the state of Illinois.

The brainchild behind the Million- the first thoroughbred race in America to offer a $1,000,000 purse when it was first run in 1981- was Richard L. Duchossois, chairman of Arlington Park. The finish of that race, with the great John Henry making a furious rally to nip The Bart by a nose at the wire, was tremendously thrilling and would immediately stamp this race as one of the best of the year.

Duchossois has been the face of Illinois racing for three decades, rebuilding Arlington park after a powerful fire destroyed the grandstands in 1985. The new facility that was built at the same location is today one of America's - and the world's - most beautiful race tracks.

In Tuesday's BloodHorse.com, Claire Novak, who grew up not far from the racetrack, writes a superb piece on Duchossois (read here). Novak beautifully describes this facility as she details the life of the chairman, now a spright 92 years young, from his time in the Army during World War II through his initial interest in purchasing the track up until today.

It's a well written piece, complete with streaming video, that captures the spirit of this man, one who puts the bettor first; he comments that if you don't take care of your clients, you won't have a product.

There certainly has been a lot of bad publicity about thoroughbred racing as of late, so how nice to read this marvelous article.

Thoughts about the weekend racing on both coasts

Thoughts on an excellent weekend of racing at Saratoga and Del Mar...

On Saturday at Saratoga, there were eleven races won by eleven different trainers and eleven different jockeys. How neat is that?

It's pretty rare for something like that to happen and while it would almost be an impossibility at a small track where one or two trainers rule the roost, it's a testament to the quality and depth of racing at the Spa. Many big name trainers captured a win on Saturday: Mott, Pletcher, Matz, Tagg, Violette, Tony Dutrow, J. Larry Jones and Sheppard, to name a few. The win by Sheppard in the sixth race meant that he has had at least one winner at each Saratoga meet since 1969! 

I mention this as I remember the days some eight to ten years ago (and even after that) when Todd Pletcher would win multiple races a day (as many as three or four) and clean up every year in the trainer's standings. Nothing against Pletcher, who is having an excellent year again, but how nice for the industry and for fans wagering on these races to have such balance.

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Speaking of Todd Pletcher, the trainer unveiled another of his promising two-year olds on Saturday when Competitive Edge destroyed his competition, winning by 10 and 1/4 lengths, covering the 6 furlongs in 1:09 and 4/5 (the time certainly could have been faster, by why push the horse in his first race when he's got that big a lead in the stretch?). What made this performance even more impressive was the fact that trainer Chad Brown unveiled one of his two-year olds named Aldrin (by Malibu Moon out of the Unbridled mare Tap Your Heels) in this race. One had to note this horse, if only for the fact that his purchase price at the Keeneland sale this April was one million dollars! Early talk mentioned Aldrin being a monster; that same description was also being used for Competitive Edge. Aldrin never found his footing, finishing a dull seventh in an eight-horse field.

Any performance such as the one Competitive Edge turned in, especially from a Pletcher two-year old, gets one to think about the Breeders' Cup, followed by the Derby trail in the spring, but given that this colt is by Super Saver, Pletcher's lone Kentucky Derby winner (in 2010), the buzz will naturally be rather strong!

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There was another exceptional performance by a 2-year old over the weekend, this one a California-bred filly named Desert Steel (by Desert Code, out of a Cozzene mare), who won by an easy 5 and 1/4 lengths in a track record time of 56 and 3/5 seconds for 5 furlongs! Breaking from the rail, the filly went wire to wire and never had an anxious moment (the horse is trained by Simon Callaghan). I'm sure this will be a key race; keep an eye on the 3rd place finisher Soul Flyer, a beaten chalk who had to break from post position nine. This horse ran a fine race, but when the rail horse runs that fast and that easily, there's not much you can do.

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Saratoga and Del Mar are the jewels of American thoroughbred racing, so it makes sense that their analysts are among the very best. At Del Mar, John Lies takes the fan through every horse, pointing out previous form as well as breeding - he's especially thorough when it comes to naming the full or half brothers or sisters of each horse. You can tell he's done his homework and I enjoy his matter-of fact descriptions of the field; for Lies, each horse is worth a look - a fact that escapes too many handicappers.

So he's got an almost encyclopedic knowledge of the horse for each field, but it was something he said during his analysis of Sunday's final race, a 6 furlong event for three-year olds and upward maidens with a claiming price of $50,000 to $40,000. Talking about the favorite Q'Viva, trained by Mark Glatt, Lies noted that this would be his first race on polytrack; in his previous five races, he had run on either dirt or on the turf. He then mentioned how sometimes you shouldn't worry about that; instead you should look at his form and see how he shapes up against the other horses in the race - is he a deserving favorite? In the opinion of Lies, this was the best horse in the race.

We all love to examine the past performances from all sorts of angles - is the horse cutting back in distance? Is he coming off a layoff? What are his speed figures and how do they compare to the competition? Etc., etc and this leads to the old "paralysis by analysis" situation where you can't select one horse, as you're stuck between two or three (or maybe more). So how nice that Lies did what more handicappers should do - he simplified things.

By the way, Q'Viva, the best horse in the race in the opinion of John Lies was made the post time favorite and won by 4 and 1/4 lengths, paying $6.40 for the win with a $2 exacta of $61 and a $1 trifecta of $142.30. Sometimes, the obvious play is the right one!

My Derby Pick? Not who - or what - you might think

Every year, I struggle - as do tens of thousands of others - about who will win the Kentucky Derby. It's always difficult for several factors, if only that none of the horses have gone the distance of one a quarter miles, so even a horse that has had things his way, such as California Chrome, still has that one questions mark; indeed, most horses have at least two or three question marks.

So who am I picking this year? Well it's not the usual pick, as I don't know who'll win. There are seven or eight horses with a chance to win, including (in my order of handicapping):

California Chrome
Candy Boy
General A-Rod
Medal Count
Wildcat Red
Samraat
Dance With Fate
Intense Holiday
Wicked Strong

I also like the chances of a few horses to possibly get up for second:

Commanding Curve
Danza

And for third:

Ride on Curlin


So there you go, just put 8 horses on top, with the same eight horses second plus the two I mentioned and then Ride on Curlin third, and you've got the trifecta. As 50 cent tris are being offered, that's a $40 bet. You'll collect a lot more than that if it comes in, so take a shot!


By the way, I like Ride on Curlin for third or fourth, but no 10 cent supers for the Derby, so $1 supers are a bit rich for my blood, so you're on your own on that one!