Friday, October 31, 2014

Breeders' Cup - Friday

Mike Smith looks to build on his record 20 Breeders' Cup wins (Photo ©Tom Hyland)

Just a few thoughts on the 2014 Breeders' Cup races, as there is way too much written already.

A Pick 3, starting with the 5th race, the $100,000 Damascus Stakes. Bob Baffert has three horses entered, but as usual when a trainer has more than one horse entered, go with the highest price. So I'm taking a pass on Midnight Hawk (#2) and Chitu (#3) in favor of his other entry Declassify (#7).

I also like the #11 Bahamian Squall, trained by David Fawkes and ridden by Rafael Bejerano. He comes off of one of his best races ever and can still improve. He ran in last year's BC Sprint at Santa Anita and was not embarrassed, finishing 6th, beaten only 2 and 3/4 lengths for the top spot.

For the 6th race, I think that the favorite Hootenanny (#5) can be beat, as he's stretching out. He has looked great so far and I read that his trainer Wesley Ward says the horse is "fully cranked" for this race, so he could be very dangerous. But he's going up against some very tough horses in this race. It's very wide open - as are most BC races, but particularly this year - so I'm going with Commemorative (#4), Conquest Typhoon (#6), War Envoy (#7) - Aidan O'Brien - first lasix - how can you not like this horse? - Offering Plan (#8) - Chad Brown at 20-1 morning line - and finally Imperia (#11), trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who's looked excellent in both of his turf starts.

For the 7th, the BC Mile, I can't throw out the chalk Goldencents, who will probably be the lowest-priced favorite today and possible tomorrow. But I'm going to also include several other horses in this race, namely Carve (#2), Vicar's in Trouble (#3), Pants on Fire (#4), Handsome Mike (#5) - a 30-1 shot, Fed Biz (#8), Tapiture (#9) and Big Bane Theory (#10).

So the Pick 3 for races 5, 6, 7 is:
7,11 / 4,6,7,8,11 / 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 - total for a 50 cent bet = $40

Last Pick 3 of the day - races 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies), 9 (BC Distaff) and 10 (allowance race, 7 furlongs)

8th race - 4, 5, 6, 11

9th race - 1,4,7,9 - note, I am throwing out the two favorites, Close Hatches (#10) and Untapable (#11). Call me crazy, but I think these two horse will get beat, as this is a more competitive Distaff than in recent years.

10th race - 1,2,3,7,8,11 (11 is my top choice, but the race is too wide open).

So the Pick 3 for races 8, 9, 10 is:

4,5,6,11 / 1,4, 7, 9 / 1, 2,3, 7, 8, 11 - total for a 50 cent bet = $48

Good luck and we'll see you tomorrow!