Breeders' Cup - Friday

Mike Smith looks to build on his record 20 Breeders' Cup wins (Photo ©Tom Hyland)

Just a few thoughts on the 2014 Breeders' Cup races, as there is way too much written already.

A Pick 3, starting with the 5th race, the $100,000 Damascus Stakes. Bob Baffert has three horses entered, but as usual when a trainer has more than one horse entered, go with the highest price. So I'm taking a pass on Midnight Hawk (#2) and Chitu (#3) in favor of his other entry Declassify (#7).

I also like the #11 Bahamian Squall, trained by David Fawkes and ridden by Rafael Bejerano. He comes off of one of his best races ever and can still improve. He ran in last year's BC Sprint at Santa Anita and was not embarrassed, finishing 6th, beaten only 2 and 3/4 lengths for the top spot.

For the 6th race, I think that the favorite Hootenanny (#5) can be beat, as he's stretching out. He has looked great so far and I read that his trainer Wesley Ward says the horse is "fully cranked" for this race, so he could be very dangerous. But he's going up against some very tough horses in this race. It's very wide open - as are most BC races, but particularly this year - so I'm going with Commemorative (#4), Conquest Typhoon (#6), War Envoy (#7) - Aidan O'Brien - first lasix - how can you not like this horse? - Offering Plan (#8) - Chad Brown at 20-1 morning line - and finally Imperia (#11), trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who's looked excellent in both of his turf starts.


For the 7th, the BC Mile, I can't throw out the chalk Goldencents, who will probably be the lowest-priced favorite today and possible tomorrow. But I'm going to also include several other horses in this race, namely Carve (#2), Vicar's in Trouble (#3), Pants on Fire (#4), Handsome Mike (#5) - a 30-1 shot, Fed Biz (#8), Tapiture (#9) and Big Bane Theory (#10).

So the Pick 3 for races 5, 6, 7 is:
7,11 / 4,6,7,8,11 / 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10 - total for a 50 cent bet = $40


Last Pick 3 of the day - races 8 (BC Juvenile Fillies), 9 (BC Distaff) and 10 (allowance race, 7 furlongs)

8th race - 4, 5, 6, 11

9th race - 1,4,7,9 - note, I am throwing out the two favorites, Close Hatches (#10) and Untapable (#11). Call me crazy, but I think these two horse will get beat, as this is a more competitive Distaff than in recent years.

10th race - 1,2,3,7,8,11 (11 is my top choice, but the race is too wide open).


So the Pick 3 for races 8, 9, 10 is:

4,5,6,11 / 1,4, 7, 9 / 1, 2,3, 7, 8, 11 - total for a 50 cent bet = $48



Good luck and we'll see you tomorrow!

"Keys" from Del Mar

Another exciting Del Mar season is in the books and besides excellent racing as always, this year, it seemed to me, was as good a meet as they've enjoyed in years. The fields were larger and there was great balance; evidence of that is the fact that Jerry Hollendorfer and Peter Miller tied for the most victories by a trainer. Bob Baffert, by the way, wasn't even in the top five in the category, although he certainly had a fine meet, ending with a bang by winning his 12th Del Mar Futurity on closing day, September 3rd.

As a handicapper, I also loved the fact that there were a good number of double digit prices that won, especially with the 2-year old races. I mention this, as this certainly was not the case - once again - at Saratoga. I love that track not only for the history, but also the quality of racing, but when Todd Pletcher continues to seemingly win every other 2-year old MSW race at the Spa, well, it gets a little boring. Yes, he has great horses and top clients, but you'd like to see someone else win a few of these races from time to time.

So spreading the wealth at Del Mar (or any track) when it comes to the leading trainers is a good thing, so great for Hollendorfer and Miller as well as Bob Hess, John Sadler and Doug O'Neill, all of whom enjoyed more victories at the meet than Baffert. Nothing against Baffert, but it's nice to see things even out a bit. Besides, no one is going to feel sorry for BB, at least not for some time.

Baffert had the last laugh anyway when he won the Del Mar Futurity with American Pharaoah, a colt he had labeled as one of his best 2-year olds. He was favored to win his first race, but ran into a buzzsaw named Om, trained by Dan Hendricks in the 4th race on Saturday, August 9. Om, from the three hole, took the lead immediately and was able to shake loose from American Pharaoh, who stalked him three wide down the backstretch. The race was over by the eighth pole and American Pharaoh faded to fifth, losing by 9 and 1/4 lengths.

For that race, American Pharaoh was equipped with blinkers, but for the Futurity, Baffert had removed them. He had the rail, which didn't hurt his chances, but for this race, he was sharp as could be, taking the lead after a few strides and then taking command of the race after two furlongs. His final time for the seven furlongs was 1:21 and 2/5 seconds and his winning margin was 4 and 3/4 lengths.

By the way, the second and third place finishers were Calculator, trained by Peter Miller and Iron Fist, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. I mention this as both of those horses came out of the same race that American Pharaoh ran in on August 9 against Om. Talk about a key race! (If you'll allow me a moment to gloat, I did catch the $227.60 exacta that race- I wrote about it here.)


If that isn't enough evidence to get you to realize that the Om race on August 9 was a key race, consider what happened on closing day in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes, that went off as race 6, just an hour or so before the Del Mar Futurity. The winner of this race was Daddy DT, trained by John Sadler and ridden by Corey Nakatani. Daddy DT had run in one previous race, that on the polytrack, finishing sixth by ten lengths. Guess what race that was? You got it, it was race 4 on August 9, the race won so convincingly by Om. Yes, the switch to turf was the right call for Daddy DT, but clearly, his effort in the August 9 race, was much better than looked on paper, due to an overwhelming foe.


So the evidence is overwhelming - the 4th race on August 9, a 6and 1/2 furlong sprint for 2-year olds was as "key" a key race, as you'll ever find!


By way, I can't wait to see Om race again. Nor can I wait to see what is in store for the first-ever fall meet at Del Mar; named the Bing Crosby Season, the meet runs from November 7-30.

A Price at Del Mar

I caught a big price last Saturday at Del Mar when Om wired the field of 2 year-olds at 6 and 1/2 furlongs. Om, a Dan Hendricks charge, was 15-1 in the morning line and went off at 22-1. The fact that Bob Baffert had a first timer from Zayat named American Pharoah had a lot to do with Om's odds (American Pharoah, coming off some typically fast works for the trainer was the morning line favorite at 5-2 and was bet down to 7-5).

Om had run one race and finished fifth, beaten by 11 and 1/4 lengths; to the casual handicapper, this looked like a horse to take a pass on. However, the race he ran was a 5 furlong sprint run in June at Santa Anita in a very fast time of 57.2. Om showed some speed out of the 6 hole, but couldn't keep up with the winner, as he was 3 wide into the stretch, as noted in the form. Also, while Om did finish 11 and 1/4 lengths behind the winner (BadReadSanchez), that horse won by 10 lengths, so Om really turned in a fine performance the first time out. The fact that he was sent off at 5-2 was another positive sign.

Om, out of the three hole, did grab the lead right away in last Saturday's race with American Pharoah stalking him to his outside. It was those two horses on the lead all the way down the backstretch, but by the time the horses entered the lane, Om had put away American Pharoah and all of his challengers, winning by 7 and 1/4 lengths. Thankfully, I made a $2 exacta with a few horses, so I collected $227.60, as the second favorite Iron Fist, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, got the place spot.


Today could be a similar story for the 6th race at Del Mar, a 5 and 1/2 furlong sprint for 2-year olds. Once again, there's a talented Baffert firster, this one named Abusive Power, co-owned by Mike Pegram. He's had some fast works and is ridden by Baffert's go-to jock Martin Garcia. All systems are go, as they say (he's 4-1 morning line).

The favorite is #8, Kantune, trained by Mark Casse. Kantune ran an excellent first race at Del Mar on July 19, a 5-furlong dash in 58 seconds flat. He just missed, finishing second by a half-length when bet down to 7-2. No doubt a deserving favorite today at 3-1.

However, inside speed has been very good at Del Mar lately, so look out for the #1, American Sailor, a Cody Autrey trainee. He also had a fine first race at Del Mar on July 19, that was run in a very quick 57.4. American Sailor showed early speed, but according to the notes in the form, was three wide in the lane and weakened; he finished ninth, beaten by eleven lengths. The fact that he was sent off at 5-2 is a positive sign for today, as is the fact that he has the one hole, so his early speed should mean a great deal in this race.

To complicate things even more, there's the #7, Discreet Prince, conditioned by Robertino Diodoro. This horse ran in the same race as American Sailor, but was not favored by the public, going off a tick shy of 40-1. However, this horse beat American Sailor that day, also showing speed, finishing 5th, beaten by 5 and 3/4 lengths;  his morning line is a much more reasonable 5-1.


Add to the mix some beautifully bred firsters such as #2 Pappou (Tapit, out of a Saint Ballado mare, trained by John Sadler and #5 Film Freak (Fusaichi Pegasus, out of a Dynaformer mare), trained by Tommy Proctor and you've got a pretty contentious race. How I love these two-year old races at Del Mar!

Mr. D

Richard L. Duchossois with jockey Kent Desormeaux and trainer Bill Mott at the trophy presentation for the 2009 Beverly D stakes, won by Dyanforce (Photo ©Tom Hyland)

This weekend the 32nd running of the Arlington Million will take place at Arlington Park, in the northwest-Chicago suburb of Arlington Heights. The Million is one of three Grade 1 races that day; the others being the Beverly D for fillies and mares, 3 year old and up, run at one mile and three-sixteenths on the turf and the Secretariat Stakes, for three-year olds on the turf at the same distance. These three races are the cornerstone of the Arlington Festival of Racing, the biggest day each year for racing in the state of Illinois.

The brainchild behind the Million- the first thoroughbred race in America to offer a $1,000,000 purse when it was first run in 1981- was Richard L. Duchossois, chairman of Arlington Park. The finish of that race, with the great John Henry making a furious rally to nip The Bart by a nose at the wire, was tremendously thrilling and would immediately stamp this race as one of the best of the year.

Duchossois has been the face of Illinois racing for three decades, rebuilding Arlington park after a powerful fire destroyed the grandstands in 1985. The new facility that was built at the same location is today one of America's - and the world's - most beautiful race tracks.

In Tuesday's BloodHorse.com, Claire Novak, who grew up not far from the racetrack, writes a superb piece on Duchossois (read here). Novak beautifully describes this facility as she details the life of the chairman, now a spright 92 years young, from his time in the Army during World War II through his initial interest in purchasing the track up until today.

It's a well written piece, complete with streaming video, that captures the spirit of this man, one who puts the bettor first; he comments that if you don't take care of your clients, you won't have a product.

There certainly has been a lot of bad publicity about thoroughbred racing as of late, so how nice to read this marvelous article.

Thoughts about the weekend racing on both coasts

Thoughts on an excellent weekend of racing at Saratoga and Del Mar...

On Saturday at Saratoga, there were eleven races won by eleven different trainers and eleven different jockeys. How neat is that?

It's pretty rare for something like that to happen and while it would almost be an impossibility at a small track where one or two trainers rule the roost, it's a testament to the quality and depth of racing at the Spa. Many big name trainers captured a win on Saturday: Mott, Pletcher, Matz, Tagg, Violette, Tony Dutrow, J. Larry Jones and Sheppard, to name a few. The win by Sheppard in the sixth race meant that he has had at least one winner at each Saratoga meet since 1969! 

I mention this as I remember the days some eight to ten years ago (and even after that) when Todd Pletcher would win multiple races a day (as many as three or four) and clean up every year in the trainer's standings. Nothing against Pletcher, who is having an excellent year again, but how nice for the industry and for fans wagering on these races to have such balance.

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Speaking of Todd Pletcher, the trainer unveiled another of his promising two-year olds on Saturday when Competitive Edge destroyed his competition, winning by 10 and 1/4 lengths, covering the 6 furlongs in 1:09 and 4/5 (the time certainly could have been faster, by why push the horse in his first race when he's got that big a lead in the stretch?). What made this performance even more impressive was the fact that trainer Chad Brown unveiled one of his two-year olds named Aldrin (by Malibu Moon out of the Unbridled mare Tap Your Heels) in this race. One had to note this horse, if only for the fact that his purchase price at the Keeneland sale this April was one million dollars! Early talk mentioned Aldrin being a monster; that same description was also being used for Competitive Edge. Aldrin never found his footing, finishing a dull seventh in an eight-horse field.

Any performance such as the one Competitive Edge turned in, especially from a Pletcher two-year old, gets one to think about the Breeders' Cup, followed by the Derby trail in the spring, but given that this colt is by Super Saver, Pletcher's lone Kentucky Derby winner (in 2010), the buzz will naturally be rather strong!

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There was another exceptional performance by a 2-year old over the weekend, this one a California-bred filly named Desert Steel (by Desert Code, out of a Cozzene mare), who won by an easy 5 and 1/4 lengths in a track record time of 56 and 3/5 seconds for 5 furlongs! Breaking from the rail, the filly went wire to wire and never had an anxious moment (the horse is trained by Simon Callaghan). I'm sure this will be a key race; keep an eye on the 3rd place finisher Soul Flyer, a beaten chalk who had to break from post position nine. This horse ran a fine race, but when the rail horse runs that fast and that easily, there's not much you can do.

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Saratoga and Del Mar are the jewels of American thoroughbred racing, so it makes sense that their analysts are among the very best. At Del Mar, John Lies takes the fan through every horse, pointing out previous form as well as breeding - he's especially thorough when it comes to naming the full or half brothers or sisters of each horse. You can tell he's done his homework and I enjoy his matter-of fact descriptions of the field; for Lies, each horse is worth a look - a fact that escapes too many handicappers.

So he's got an almost encyclopedic knowledge of the horse for each field, but it was something he said during his analysis of Sunday's final race, a 6 furlong event for three-year olds and upward maidens with a claiming price of $50,000 to $40,000. Talking about the favorite Q'Viva, trained by Mark Glatt, Lies noted that this would be his first race on polytrack; in his previous five races, he had run on either dirt or on the turf. He then mentioned how sometimes you shouldn't worry about that; instead you should look at his form and see how he shapes up against the other horses in the race - is he a deserving favorite? In the opinion of Lies, this was the best horse in the race.

We all love to examine the past performances from all sorts of angles - is the horse cutting back in distance? Is he coming off a layoff? What are his speed figures and how do they compare to the competition? Etc., etc and this leads to the old "paralysis by analysis" situation where you can't select one horse, as you're stuck between two or three (or maybe more). So how nice that Lies did what more handicappers should do - he simplified things.

By the way, Q'Viva, the best horse in the race in the opinion of John Lies was made the post time favorite and won by 4 and 1/4 lengths, paying $6.40 for the win with a $2 exacta of $61 and a $1 trifecta of $142.30. Sometimes, the obvious play is the right one!

My Derby Pick? Not who - or what - you might think

Every year, I struggle - as do tens of thousands of others - about who will win the Kentucky Derby. It's always difficult for several factors, if only that none of the horses have gone the distance of one a quarter miles, so even a horse that has had things his way, such as California Chrome, still has that one questions mark; indeed, most horses have at least two or three question marks.

So who am I picking this year? Well it's not the usual pick, as I don't know who'll win. There are seven or eight horses with a chance to win, including (in my order of handicapping):

California Chrome
Candy Boy
General A-Rod
Medal Count
Wildcat Red
Samraat
Dance With Fate
Intense Holiday
Wicked Strong

I also like the chances of a few horses to possibly get up for second:

Commanding Curve
Danza

And for third:

Ride on Curlin


So there you go, just put 8 horses on top, with the same eight horses second plus the two I mentioned and then Ride on Curlin third, and you've got the trifecta. As 50 cent tris are being offered, that's a $40 bet. You'll collect a lot more than that if it comes in, so take a shot!


By the way, I like Ride on Curlin for third or fourth, but no 10 cent supers for the Derby, so $1 supers are a bit rich for my blood, so you're on your own on that one!

Journalistic Excellence?

Photo ©Tom Hyland

An inquiry into another attack on the horse racing industry

Once again, the horse racing industry is being heavily criticized with a recent video produced by PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals) highlighting certain behavior by a few individuals who work for trainer Steve Asmussen. The video, almost nine and one-half minutes in length, focuses on a PETA undercover investigator who was around the trainer's barn for several months at Churchill Downs and Saratoga, two of America's showcase racetracks. 

As you will see on the video, PETA accuses Asumssen and his assistant trainer Scott Blasi of all sorts of unethical behavior with one horse in particular, 2011 Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro, but in reality, it is a criticism of his barn's behavior with numerous horses.

On March 19, The New York Times ran a story penned by Joe Drape about this video. Certainly the power of the Times gives this episode greater weight; at the very least, it's more negative attention that the racing industry doesn't need.

I'd like to make a few points here, starting with The New York Times. Basically, my first question is this; what does the Times have against horse racing? In 2012, the paper published an article, also by Drape, about an investigation into the drug culture (as they described it in their article) of horse racing in America; there was one particular shocking photo of a dead horse, laying outside a race track and the point of the article was to claim that too many horses were being given medications that were either improper or not needed. The blame was on trainers and their owners who wanted to do everything they could to make a buck.

Later that year, Drape also wrote an article criticizing Doug O' Neill for his handling of his horse, I'll Have Another, that had just won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and was looking to capture the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont Stakes. The article featured a quote from a veterinarian who said that the horse had been on medication, as though every medication given to that horse or any horse is a bad thing. When the truth came out, it was clear that the medication was routine for the horse and amounted to nothing more than a mild pain killer.

Incidentally, owner Paul Reddam passed up the possible glory of a Triple Crown by retiring the horse a few days before the Belmont Stakes, as the horse had suffered a tendon injury. Reddam clearly did the proper thing by not racing the horse, so can you imagine the Times' response if he had raced the horse in the Belmont and he had suffered an injury? Yet they went on a wild goose chase with one particular angle and tarnished the image of Reddam and especially trainer O'Neill. Yes, O'Neill had been suspended in the past for not following regulations on medication, but this was clearly a case of guilt by association. Shouldn't we expect better from such a distinguished newspaper?


My question about why the paper dislikes the sport is based on my opinion, one that I'm sure many of you reading this will agree with; the average reader of The New York Times does not care about horse racing. I think I can safely make that assumption. So why have they decided to attack the sport again?  To be fair, the investigation this time was done by PETA and not the paper, so perhaps the editors believe they are doing a service here. But I disagree.

The paper's 2012 investigation was published the week of the Kentucky Derby, the one race per year that the average American follows, if only to win an office pool. So the editors knew that this particular timing of their story would have greater impact. If this were a horse racing publication, fine. But for the Times, this smacked of opportunism.

Now to be fair to The New York Times, they don't always criticize the sport. Last year, they ran a wonderful feature on jockey Russell Baze, complete with streaming video, about this remarkable jockey. I've emailed Joe Drape personally in the past and he promptly replied, thanking me for my email; this was in response to an excellent article he wrote about Todd Pletcher.

I also want to point out in the article on the 19th, Drape did ask the agent of a jockey who was accused by PETA in their video of using a buzzer in a race; the paper let the agent make the claim that he trusts his jockey. So the paper did make some attempt to be fair. However the tone of the article was anti horse-racing, so the damage had been done.

A by-product of this is the fact that as the average reader of the paper is not a big thoroughbred racing enthusiast, he or she will read this and assume that all of this negative behavior is true, given the paper's track record for journalistic excellence. Those of us that love horse racing know better.


But my biggest criticism of this situation is clearly focused on PETA. Let me first say that I am a lover of thoroughbred horses and animals in general; if there are incidents of improper treatment to a horse, we should know about it. PETA can help greatly in this regard, but only if they tell the truth.

One can certainly understand why PETA went after Asmussen, as he has been suspended numerous times in the past for medication violations. If there is abuse going on in his barn, then the idea of an undercover investigator infiltrating his crew's behavior can be a valuable thing. The evidence in this video certainly looks damning enough, so that's all fine. We know there are cheaters in this sport - as in many sports - so let's not close our eyes to this situation.

But here's my problem with this video. Instead of just focusing on mistreatment of one particular horse or a few horses, they felt they also had to address the question of a jockey using a buzzer in a race. There is a poorly shot, dimly lit video at a dinner where Gary Stevens and D. Wayne Lukas talk about this topic; Stevens is quoted as saying he used one.

So PETA can't stop at the undercover investigation of Asmussen's employees, they have to tarnish the reputation of two of the legends of the sport. This is yellow journalism at its worst.



But the absolute lowest point of this video comes with two statements from the narrator. Here's one:

"Trainers will do just about anything to gain an advantage regardless of the consequences to the horses."

Again, if they want to go after one particular trainer and have the evidence, so be it. But to say trainers in the collective meaning of the word is simply wrong. Again, someone who doesn't follow the sport will hear that statement and think every trainer is crooked. Again, we who love the sport know this is not true - not by a mile.

But if you thought that statement was bad, check out this one from the video:

"From birth to death, most horses used for racing are treated like disposable commodities."

Can you believe that? How can PETA make such a claim? Where is the evidence? The statement is clear - most horses are mistreated. Not some or many, but most. What an irresponsible claim. If an attorney made a statement like this in court, it wouldn't be admitted as permissible. But make a video and who checks on these things?

Of course, you'll notice on the PETA website where this video can be found, there is a link for you to donate money to this organization. Talk about blatant.

I'm all for cheaters and unethical people in the horse racing business being exposed and punished. But this must be done in the proper way and not in a manner in which sweeping statements are made to win sympathy so some organization can raise funds.